A mere lack in number can not be offset by the most advanced aircraft in the inventory: not sufficient numbers to produce the pace of operations such a high end fight would require. It is that arithmetic that is at the centre of a new force-structure argument that the US Air Force requires to acquire significantly more next generation fighters and bombers than it currently envisions.
In one of their policy papers, Mitchell Institute of Aerospace Studies, former pilots and airpower scholars had cautioned that a small stock of penetrating aircraft would lead to commanders resorting to conservative use. The problem as presented by Heather Penney and retired Air Force Col. Mark Gunzinger revolved around the stratified defenses and geography of China that forms the “sanctuaries” that can support the existence of fires of missiles and air-defense. Their argument is that such sanctuaries would have to be pouted upon at an early and frequent rate and that such a process consumes survival and bulk.
“The Air Force’s stealthy bombers and fighter inventories have the survivability needed to penetrate high-density threat areas but lack enough sortie capacity for a conflict with China.” The minimum number of B-21s and F-47s recommended by the paper is 200-300 B-21s and 300 F-47s, which is twice greater than the minimums stated by the service, 100 B-21s and 185 F-47s. The same analysis also demanded the further capacity of the existing ones such as increased F-35s and F-15EXs to ensure that day-to-day needs did not eat up the aircraft most suited to the most difficult tasks.
That discussion is coming up against the reality of the program. The B-21 Raider is still in low rate initial production and all its production deliveries have been focused on test aircraft and not operational squadrons. The F-47, the sixth generation fighter that the Air Force was emerging as a result of the NGAD, is still being characterized as a collection of technologies that would allow the air to be superior to the ground as opposed to a single, fully described platform, an architecture that envisions strong interconnections with uncrewed teammates, distributed sensors and innovative electronic-warfare solutions. The latter portfolio concept can widen the capability, however, without the requirement of sufficient flightworthy tails and trained crews to maintain operations.
There is a second pressure point of bomber arithmetic. Air Force Global Strike Command has not been shy of acknowledging that the current assumptions of planning were developed in another time. With the approach of B-21 to service, the question has been raised among senior leaders regarding the appropriateness of the original program of record of 100 aircraft in relation to the present threat. Gen. Thomas Bussiere has cited a rising standard that has been deliberated within the service, a fleet of bombers that will total 220 bombers in total over time, comprising 145 B-21s with 75 B-52Js. Analysts also point out that the B-21 nuclear certification and alert mission can be capable of holding a portion of the fleet on reserve, reducing the quantity that can be used at any time to conduct conventional missions in spite of the overall inventory appearing healthy on paper.
There also exists a near-term bridge issue. The Air Force is still relying on legacy bombers- B-52, B-1 and B-2- and a fighter force that has been analyzed as the smallest in decades and the oldest. The fact that a 2024 Government Accountability Office study has found that nonstop deployments have lowered preparedness supports the implicit caution: preparedness and capacity may be as decisive as the state of the art design.
The Mitchell Institute claimed that to bridge the gap, the procurement acceleration would demand long term resources in the order of an extra 40 billion dollars a year and force design which incorporates uncrewed Collaborative Combat Aircraft as “loyal wingmen” and not replacements. The key challenge that is being faced by the engineers is not just creating beautiful platforms, but creating a strong system that can sustain itself, industrial base, training, pipelines, maintaining throughput, and deployable mass, capable of providing stealth aircraft sorties whenever the environment punishes one of its errors.
