In recent weeks, Iran has been shaken by the most widespread protests it has witnessed since the 2022 protests following the death of Mahsa Amini. Starting out on December 28 with people taking to the streets in anger at a plummeting exchange rate and rising inflation, the protests have developed into a countrywide rejection of the country’s political system. They have been joined by a wide range of people who have previously been loyal to the government.
The government’s reaction to the crisis has been swift and multifaceted. The security forces have used deadly force, with estimated thousands of people killed and tens of thousands arrested. The government has also enforced a near-total internet shutdown, including all forms of global and local communication. The internet shutdown, which is beyond the 100-hour mark, has been rated as one of the most serious cases of internet disruptions ever recorded, according to digital rights specialists. Amnesty International has indicated that the internet shutdown not only masks human rights abuses but also enables them through the absence of documentation of abuses like extrajudicial killings.
More sophisticated methods of surveillance and repression have become characteristic of this crackdown. Low-flying drones have been used to track down protesters who chant their slogans from their homes, while sophisticated jamming has been used to block satellite-based internet services such as Starlink, which had become an important lifeline for getting images and videos out to the world. The message that “everything is under surveillance” has been promoted by state media, which has aired videos of designated buildings and arrested protesters in an obvious effort to discourage others from taking part.
President Donald Trump has countered this by suspending diplomatic talks with Iranian leaders until the violence stops, encouraging Iranians to “take over” their institutions and stating that “help is on its way.” The Trump administration has proposed various options, from imposing new sanctions on Iran’s energy and banking industries to possible military attacks, although these officials still prefer to pursue diplomatic channels. The White House has also called for Iranians to regain access to the internet, with President Trump stating he will discuss increasing Starlink’s use in Iran with Elon Musk.
Within Iran itself, this uprising is occurring amid a shift in Iranian power politics. Ever since their war with Israel last year, there has been a shift in favor of the conventional military forces, known as Artesh, against the IRGC. The war saw a shift in favor of Artesh over IRGC in crucial national security institutions. The two forces’ differing roles in Iranian national security the IRGC’s role is maintaining domestic security, while Artesh’s role is defending the nation’s sovereignty against foreign threats have made it difficult for them to act in concert.
Globally, Tehran’s overtures towards both Russia and China have not yet produced the level of strategic support that Iran is seeking. Although both countries have economic and security ties with Iran, neither has pledged the level of high-quality weaponry and defense guarantees that could improve Iran’s current position of vulnerability. Iran is therefore left with internal turmoil and a lack of external support, as well as economic and leadership problems.
Protests are ongoing in dozens of cities across Iran despite the blackout, while pro-government rallies have been organized in an attempt by the government to show that it enjoys popular support. Videos have emerged showing massive gatherings at night, burning barricades, and people chanting slogans against Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. With the intensification of the crisis, a volatile dynamic is being created through the combination of technology, statecraft, and political polarization. It is less clear that the course will turn on a sudden fall or survival of the regime than on a contest for supremacy within its own ranks, in which a balance between repression, concession, and cohesion will decide the course of Iranian politics in the months to come.”
