What happens when machines don’t just help humans, but surpass them at the most delicate, high-stakes task imaginable? Elon Musk thinks the answer is just around the corner and that’s just the tip of the iceberg for the changes that are coming, according to the entrepreneur and futurist.
During his episode of the “Moonshots” podcast with Peter Diamandis, Musk forecasted the following regarding humanoid robots like Tesla’s Optimus: “In three years, I think we’ll have humanoid robots like Tesla’s Optimus that are better surgeons than the best humans.” He foresees a future where these robots are not only common in hospitals but also outnumber the number of surgeons in the world. The obvious benefit, according to Musk, would be the universality of excellent medical care without the possibility of error by humans while also being able to keep up with the rapidly changing medical knowledge in the field.
However, experts in bioethics and medical policy believe otherwise regarding the capabilities of humanoid robots in the medical field. For one, the art of being a masterful surgeon requires much more than dexterous machinery. Variability in the human anatomy of patients, the art of procedures like plastic surgery, and the difficulty in replicating long-term success would never allow these humanoid robots to catch up anytime soon.
Nonetheless, robotic surgery is not a theoretical concept by any means. In the last quarter century, it has progressed from a military tele-presence project to widespread use in operating rooms. Da Vinci systems have already been employed on a massive scale, ranging from prostate to heart surgery, resulting in faster recovery and fewer complications for patients. Research is already underway on AI-enhanced navigation systems, flexible robots, and self-driving suturing systems, indicating that Musk’s plan is not entirely unrealistic despite its aggressive approach.
But his vision doesn’t end there in operating rooms. Musk’s belief is that as robots begin to take over all sectors such as construction, agriculture, and services, the price of all goods and basic services will plummet to virtually free. This will mean that income will no longer be relevant in determining resource availability. The issue of saving for retirement will become irrelevant as well. There have been discussions on universal basic income as a way to mitigate the effect of job displacement through automation. The challenge will be in finding ways to fund this system.
Perhaps the most daring of Musk’s predictions is his vision of AI’s ability to achieve “extreme longevity” or even immortality. He writes that “aging is a kind of ‘programming’ that could be rewritten once we understand our internal body clock.” Other visionaries, such as Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, have speculated that AI could condense a century’s worth of research into a biomedical field into just a decade, effectively doubling human lifespan. However, detractors argue that although AI can speed research, there is not yet any evidence that it can change the underlying biology of aging.
The last component in Musk’s worldview is that of artificial general intelligence (AGI) AI systems that have human-like intelligence in multiple areas. Musk believes that in 2030, AI will surpass human intelligence in its entirety, with initial kinds of AGI arriving much earlier than that. While polls of AI researchers show a more measured timeline for AGI, with a 50% probability in 2040, past instances of human confidence in AI arriving much quicker think self-driving cars to analyzing images like radiologists make for a convincing case for caution. And yet, progress in scaling, architectures, and reasoning capabilities make AGI very much a possibility.
Whether these milestones occur on Musk’s timeline or in the distant future, they are a precursor to a future where robotics, AI, and biotechnology could completely redefine the future of work, medicine, and even the human condition. The question is not only a matter of when these changes will occur but also a matter of adapting to these changes.
