As IDC’s Francisco Jeronimo puts it, the unfolding DRAM crisis really does mark “the end of an era of cheap abundant memory”. And by 2026 it will be reshaping smartphones in ways that might frustrate even casual users.
The latest forecast from TrendForce is for a strong price increase in the first half of this year, due to voracious demand from hyperscale AI data centers. Those installations, full of Nvidia GPU systems, have a nearly insatiable appetite for HBM and DDR5 modules. The resultant manufacturing shift toward high-margin enterprise-class chips is starving supply for consumer-class LPDDR5X used in smartphones. Every wafer used in an HBM stack represents one taken away from a mid-range handset’s RAM; thus, the zero-sum nature of the bottleneck.
Memory already accounts for 15-20% of the bill of materials for mid-range Android devices, and a 40% price hike in DRAM can slice several percentage points off margins, Bernstein’s analysis shows for Xiaomi. That leaves OEMs with a choice: raise launch prices or degrade the specification. Many will choose the latter, says TrendForce, slowing the pace of upgrades and standardizing RAM at lower capacities, mid-range phones falling from 12GB to 8GB, for example, and low-end models reverting to just 4GB.
This is much more than just a spec-sheet downgrading from a performance point of view. Modern operating systems and apps are increasingly hungry for RAM. Social networks, browsers, and features powered by AI very often pre-allocate RAM before users have even had a chance to launch additional apps. Devices with less than 8GB are much, much likelier to fall back on swap space, compressing data into zRAM or using UFS storage as virtual RAM. Various tests of Android memory management show that 4GB devices quickly hit the swap limit, which forces the OS to aggressively close apps and result in slower reloads, while even 6GB struggles with multitasking. Only 12GB would be able to keep resource-intensive games and several active browser tabs open without killing processes.
And it’s getting worse with the boom in AI: Features like Google’s Gemini Nano or Apple Intelligence on-device models often need to reside in RAM for responsiveness. Which means a slice of system memory is essentially locked away from user applications. On the Pixel 10, for example, some of that RAM is occupied with AI tools, leaving less of it for multitasking. Cut the RAM capacity in that environment and you risk not just slower performance but also shorter device lifespans, as each future software update demands a little more memory. This is not a phenomenon constrained to just smartphones. The same DRAM shortage takes its toll on notebooks, as TrendForce revises 2026 shipment forecasts down by 5.4% year-on-year.
Highend ultrathin laptops, which have their DRAM soldered directly on the motherboard, cannot easily downgrade to lower specifications or change modules. Thus, they are more susceptible to price pressure. In both markets, brands with scale and vertical integration, such as Apple and Samsung, are better positioned to secure supply and maintain features. In both markets, brands with scale and vertical integration-like Apple and Samsung-are better positioned to secure supply and maintain features. The smaller OEMs-especially in the low-to-midtier segment-have to make harsher trade-offs.
Counterpoint Research expects global smartphone shipments to fall 2.1% in 2026, while average selling prices increase 6.9% year on year. For devices below US$200, BoM costs have already jumped up 20–30% since the start of 2025. Some brands are striking back by reusing older components, reducing camera and display quality and pushing customers toward more expensive Pro variants. In China, Xiaomi and Honor have raised tablet prices by up to 200 yuan, a trend analysts expect to spread.
Even flagship launches aren’t immune: the upcoming Galaxy S26 lineup is said to face pricing uncertainty amidst reports that the cost of camera modules, OLED panels and DRAM are on the rise. Though some models may still be shipped with the company’s in-house Exynos 2600 to save on Qualcomm licensing, constraints in DRAM supply could forbid RAM upgrades, keeping Ultra models at 12GB instead of bumping up to 16GB.
The message is clear for the tech-savvy user: 2026’s hardware landscape will be shaped not by what’s technically possible but by what’s economically viable in a market where AI is absorbing the lion’s share of global memory production. The result might be slower, less future proof devices-and higher prices-across the board.
