“Success is uncertain, but entertainment is guaranteed,” was the tweet from SpaceX CEO Elon Musk after the test flight in January.
Minutes before this tweet was sent, another rocket, previously tested, had disintegrated over the Caribbean, spewing burning debris into one of the world’s busiest air corridors – and forcing three passenger planes to be placed ‘on an “extreme safety risk’” as logged in Federal Aviation Administration flight data.
The seventh flight of the Starship spacecraft was launched from the SpaceX factory located at Boca Chica, Texas, which has the incredible power of an estimated 33 Raptor engines assembled within it, putting out an enormous force of 16 million pounds of thrust, which is twice the force of the Saturn V rocket. The two-stage spacecraft measured 400 feet tall and is fully reusable, then separates after the Super Heavy booster and the Starship before descending back to Earth. Communication was lost merely minutes after the spacecraft separated at an altitude of 64 kilometers during the expected separation, but prior to the planned communication establishment. According to FAA documents, the spacecraft had experienced a rear firing incident resulting in rapid unscheduled disassembly during ascent.
This generated a series of threats. There were objects moving in the Turks & Caicos Islands and the North Caribbean region at supersonic speed. The seismometers had identified movements associated with a small earthquake due to objects traveling at supersonic speed into the Earth’s atmosphere. Two passenger flights containing a combined total of 450 people, including a JetBlue flight to San Juan and Iberia Airlines, along with a private plane, underwent emergency decision-making scenarios.
In the JetBlue aircraft, it was clear that they could either divert and possibly run out of fuel over the water or move ahead in the no-fly area, which had the potential for debris as they proceeded at their own risk. For the Iberia flight as well as the business flight, fuel problems existed differently in each airplane. Fuel emergencies would be called by all three aircraft as they proceeded through the danger zone. Noteworthy was how the Mayday calls by the pilot to air traffic in Puerto Rico reflected the urgency of the situations.
As per the safety procedure for commercial launch operations as mandated by FAA, there had to be an alert notification of air traffic control via an emergency hotline in case of an anomaly. However, in this case, according to a statement issued by FAA, SpaceX did not make this notification when an anomaly occurred. Noticing the debris for the first time were the air traffic controllers of Miami when airline pilots alerted them to it. However, this has been disputed by SpaceX when they stated that public safety has always been SpaceX’s top priority and that the debris remained inside hazard areas that had been pre-coordinated by SpaceX together with U.S. Space Force and FAA.
With regards to the engineering and safety aspects, this incident illustrates the constantly growing integration between high-density space operations and air transportation. The FAA projects that there will be 200-400 rocket launch and reentry events every year over the coming years, versus an average of 24 over the period from 1989 to 2024. As the number of rocket events grows, the probability of conflicts between the events and high-density air traffic routes also increases. The specific incident that occurred in January made it clear that the current level of protection, which applies if a break-down of an aerospace occurs Off-Normal, is not satisfactory.
To reduce risks of this nature, it is necessary that measures beyond exclusion zones be employed. Real-time debris monitoring, using radar and vision sensors and predictive analytics, is an area of current active research that aims at constantly adapting the danger zone in real time during the occurrence of a failure. Integration with air traffic management systems can also reduce the confusions existing in crisis situations on the part of air traffic controllers and pilots. Use of launch routs that alter seasonally and during different times of the day, and also avoiding busy airline paths, is an area that can be considered in this sector. From the side of Starship, this debacle just represents the latest input into the R&D feedback loop for SpaceX.
The Starship was performing the first simulated satellite launch and also testing a few system-level components, including upgraded flaps and reduced weight. SpaceX has already performed other Starship prototypes, including a few that were flawed, and are actually currently developing a Version 3 design for the craft, which will feature upgraded Raptor 3 engines, better prop designs, and enhanced controls for aerodynamics. To make the Martian expeditions feasible, reliability is necessary and also necessary for the forthcoming Artemis missions, for which SpaceX is a contracted NASA Lunar Lander.
Furthermore, the January incident has also been used to illustrate the significance of risk management and mitigation, this time, using the Safety Management System paradigm provided by the International Civil Aviation Organization, and would crucially have been reviewed with regards to risk potential and severity and consequently undertaken for mitigation, this time, relative to controls and monitoring. A discussion panel with regards to the danger policy for debris was held by the FAA and later cancelled when claims arose that most policies are already being followed. With the increasing demands and interest in the development and use of commercial spaces, the challenge for the engineering fraternity and industry professionals in the field now not only lies in creating a invention to launch the rocket into orbit and successfully return to Earth, but to now provide a system that will protect those down here, even when things go awry, and the invention ascends to the final altitude of 40 miles.
