Could AI (Artificial Intelligence) bring about the much-needed change in America’s stubborn two-party system by an eventual prying open of the lid? The Independent Center, a non-profit organization dedicated to the engagement of independent voters, shares this view and is, therefore, placing its faith in AI to achieve what has been unsuccessful for decades; the election of independent candidates who are politically viable in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Adam Brandon, senior adviser, is not at all hesitant to point out the enormity of the challenge. “Without AI, what we’re trying to do would be beyond human ability,” he said. The group’s strategy includes the following steps: locating the congressional districts in which independent candidates have a plausible chance of winning, the recruitment of concealed talent for candidacy, and the use of real-time voter sentiment as a way of being able to change tactics instantaneously. In a situation where a few seats usually determine the power balance, the effects of the few flipped seats may well be that no party obtains the majority which will result in a deep change in the way that laws are passed.
First and foremost, it is essential to find the point of departure. With the help of advanced AI technology, which was developed with an external partner, The Independent Center’s data science team is able to analyze a huge bulk of information coming from social media and public records, as well as demographic data. The nonpartisan polling firm The Bullfinch Group, led by Brett Loyd, gives an exact description of the work, which is the division of the electorate into very detailed segments: age groups, partisan lean, turnout history, and issue priorities.
“We are examining voter participation rates. Which districts have very low turnout because those people are not excited about going to the ballot box?” he elaborated. The focus is on districts with high percentages of Gen Z and millennial voters since they will constitute more than half of the electorate in the next presidential cycle, and they are highly likely to accept independent messaging.
This method is an enormous step from the traditional polling static snapshots. Brandon points out the difference between his method and focus groups or telephone surveys which register only a certain moment’s opinion. “Polling is a snapshot in time… but then you left and your views changed. We can monitor that,” he explained. Continuous data intake allows the AI to be always one step ahead in a conversation since it can hear or, better, see, the instant changes in sentiment; a skill political ad-tech companies like LoopMe are learning from and rushing to implement for the purpose of targeting undecided voters in volatile elections.
After the AI has identified the districts full of potential, it is time for candidate discovery to come into play. The AI does not wait for self-promoters. Instead, it looks at the LinkedIn profiles, local news archives, and volunteer rosters to find those individuals whose professional background, community involvement, and issue stance match the independent brand. “Generally, they are not self-promoting themselves, but their deeds leave a trace, and we command our AI to find that trace,” Loyd said. Once the algorithmic matching indicated a much better alignment with voter priorities, the system made one local politician move from their home district to an adjacent one.
The recruiting phase reflects the kinds of methods used for commercial talent scouting but is specifically designed for political insurgency. The machine learning models which have been preset on past election data and multiwinner ranked-choice simulations not only evaluate the ideological compatibility of the candidate but also check spoiler risk – the likelihood of the candidate changing the outcome without winning directly. Spoiler dynamics are terrible in traditional plurality systems, as in the case of the presidential races with Ross Perot or Ralph Nader, but it can be different in districts where independents unite moderate blocs and there is the presence of reforms like ranked-choice voting. In this case, the AI’s forecast indicates that the negative influence of the spoilers can be neutralized.
The Independent Center’s apparatus also takes inspiration from campaign AI platforms like Battleground AI that assist candidates in varying their messaging on different topics rather than overusing one. The AI is able to suggest the time for the switch of talking points from economy to healthcare or climate by making correlations between voter sentiment data and ad performance metrics. This is very much the same as what XR Extreme Reach has found, i.e., that issue salience can change very quickly as a consequence of national happenings.
There is a demographic truth behind all this folding: independents constitute the largest single group of American voters, with Gallup putting their number at a record of 43% in 2024 and some surveys even reaching 51%. They mostly side with Democrats on abortion, healthcare, and climate change, while they agree with Republicans on crime, the economy, and immigration. Nevertheless, they consider both parties to be too extreme. The problem is that these more than 23 million independents are not allowed to vote in 15 states with closed congressional primaries, i.e., they cannot choose candidates, and thus, “safe” districts are already almost decided by partisan bases. AI’s role in discovering and energizing the previously overlooked groups of people in scenarios like this might be a game-changer.
Opponents of the view argue that the presence of independents will only cause a loss of major-party vote share and thus, the latter will be responsible for the battle. Loyd, however, considers this as a typical example of a binary way of thinking. “It’s Coke or Pepsi… What about everyone else? We are not living in that binary world anymore,” he said. From an engineering perspective, the Independent Center’s AI is not merely a tool for winning but one that can change the whole competitive landscape – by changing the inputs, the old two-party equilibrium will no longer hold. For those voters who are sick and tired of the red-blue lock, this is a carefully thought-out wager that technology will finally change the game rules.
