If you believed raw firepower was a bygone era, think again Russia’s recent deployments of ballistic and cruise missiles to its nightly attack missions are redefining the playbook for modern air defense with far-reaching implications for technology and tactics.
July 25–26, 2025, marked a major escalation of the Russian campaign against Ukraine. The Ukrainian military reported the Russians firing a complicated mix of ordnance: 12 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, eight Iskander-K cruise missiles, and seven Kh-59/69 guided missiles, all coordinated with an astonishing 208 Shahed-type and decoy drones. This marks a transition from the spring and early summer, where drone swarms were the dominant threat, into the new reality where drones and missiles are being used in combination for maximum impact. 183 drones and 17 missiles were claimed by the Ukrainian Air Force to have been neutralized or destroyed, but 25 drones and 10 missiles still found their way on nine targets, highlighting the sheer difficulty of defending against targets at this level of saturation. This increase is not a display of power it is a policy of attrition in intent.
Russia’s defense industry has been working at capacity, and Russia is estimated to deliver as many as 2,000 drones in the span of a single night by November of 2025. The Shahed-136, or Geran-2, is the linchpin of this endeavor. Produced originally in Iran, the drones are now mass-produced in Russia, typically employing Western electronics and Chinese components. Their comparatively modest cost of $20,000–$50,000 per unit is in sharp contrast with the extortionate cost of Western interceptors, like U.S.-produced Patriot missiles, which run many millions of dollars per unit. “Russia’s Shahed campaign is more than a series of drone strikes it’s a warning shot about the future of war.” observed one analyst. Russian technical developments in munitions are formidable as well.
The Iskander-M and its North Korean equivalent, KN-23, are short-range ballistic missiles with quasi-ballistic trajectories and terminal maneuvers that make them extremely difficult to intercept. The KN-23, for instance, can deliver a 500 kg warhead on a range of 690 km at low altitudes and elude air defense through evasive maneuvering. These features, combined with Russian refinements like improved guidance and electronic countermeasures, make them formidable opponents. The guided missiles Kh-59/69 provide standoff precision targeting, adding further variety to the threat. Russia’s information warfare effort reaches beyond the physical destruction. Targeting of the crowded urban areas like Kharkiv and Dnipro intentionally aims at demoralizing civilian morale and pressuring political concessions.
As the recent study has detailed, the bombing of residential buildings will force Ukrainians to lay down their arms. But empirical study demonstrates that bombardments such as these have the contrary effect, making the attacked people more resolute to resist. The psychological aspect of the campaign by Russia what defense researchers call “cognitive warfare” is meant to influence perception and choice, using fear and fatigue as weapons in themselves. Defensively, Ukrainian resilience has been characterized by swift adaptation and Western assistance. The use of Patriot and IRIS-T air defense systems has been decisive.
The IRIS-T, for instance, is capable of pursuing targets to 40 km and to 20 km in altitude, and features vertical launch and improved infrared guidance. “The system allows for simultaneous targeting and engagement of multiple aerial threats, which is essential for repelling large-scale missile attacks,” said a Ukrainian commander. During one engagement, an IRIS-T battery destroyed eight cruise missiles in 30 seconds with 100% success. German-provided TRML-4D radar, part of the IRIS-T system, is perfectly tailored to suppressing ground clutter and detecting low-altitude cruise missiles and UAVs. These systems, however, are not without their limitations. While being wildly effective against cruise missiles and drones, IRIS-T cannot intercept ballistic missiles such as the Iskander-M or KN-23 plunging at high speed from extreme altitude. Those, Ukraine has to depend on the American Patriot system, but its replenishment is slow and dependent on fixed stocks. The more Russia compacts and diversifies its strike packages, the economic mathematics becomes paramount: hurling million-dollar interceptors at $35,000 drones is not viable in the long term. The technological competition is also there in electronic warfare.
The Russian SAP-518, Khibiny, and Redut systems are designed to jam and deceive the Ukrainian air defense, but they too have limitations.
Ukrainian drones attacked the Signal radio factory in Stavropol Krai on July 26, which is one of the main producers of these electronic warfare systems. “Each such attack stops production processes and reduces the enemy’s military potential,” a Ukrainian Security Service official said. The attacks point to the increasing significance of interdicting the industrial base producing advanced electronic warfare and missile guidance. Ukrainian design has also emphasized low-cost countermeasures. Acoustic sensors, networked command systems such as DELTA, and troops operating ground-based air defense have offered a good cost-exchange ratio for Ukraine.
High-energy laser technology and interceptor unmanned aerial vehicles are being explored as scalable solutions to saturation by drones. As one defense analyst put it, Surviving drone saturation attacks in the age of autonomy and attrition requires more than exquisite systems and intermittent aid packages. It requires a full-spectrum approach high-energy lasers for point defense, deeper strikes against production nodes, and a concerted campaign to cut the technological lifelines that connect Chinese components to Russian launch rails.
The interaction of dynamic electronic warfare, unmanned aerial vehicles, and missiles in Ukraine is not only defining the war today but redefining tomorrow’s air defense. The takeaways of layered defenses, cost-exchange rates, and married kinetic and non-kinetic effects are already impacting military planners and defense industries globally.
