Can one arms sale recast Middle Eastern air power balance? Just-released documents purporting to be those of Russian state defense group Rostec show Iran will buy 48 Sukhoi Su-35 fighter planes under what would be one of Moscow’s biggest export deals since the invasion of Ukraine. The leak, allegedly published on October 2 by hacking collective Black Mirror, contains more than 300 internal documents listing export deals, prices, and delivery timetables. Screenshots that show a “Code 364” record in defense media reported to be owned by Iran of a $686 million program with phased deliveries spanning 16 to 48 months have been shared on X, Telegram, and OSINT groups. If so, the first plane may land as early as 2026, while the last batch by 2028.
Su-35 is the crest of Russia’s fourth-generation fighter technology. Multirole twin-engine, it has AL-41F1S thrust-vectoring engines with superior maneuverability in tight combat spaces. Its Irbis-E passive electronically scanned array radar can detect and track as many as 30 air targets at a time in ranges of over 350 kilometers and can produce high-resolution maps of ground targets. Carrying an up to 8,000 kilograms payload of bombs and missiles, the aircraft is meant to match its Western rivals like the F-15E Strike Eagle, F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, and Eurofighter Typhoon. When deployed to war, this package of high-speed intercept, long-range strike, and accuracy makes the Su-35 an impressive deterrent.
As significant as the suggested Iranian purchase is integration of the Khibiny-M electronic warfare complex, built by KRET, a large Rostec holding. It is meant to spoof enemy radar locks, jam missile guidance systems, and fire false countermeasures, significantly enhancing survivability against modern air-defense networks. In present-day air combat, with networked targeting and sensor fusion, such EW capability can be the difference-maker. For Iran, which retains older F-14 Tomcats and F-4 Phantoms, to move into Su-35s with Khibiny-M is more than a generation leap, but a change of course toward parity with the region’s adversaries.
The timing is significant. Iran’s recent 12-day war with Israel, culminating in U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear installations, highlighted weaknesses in its air-defense and strike capabilities. The presence of Su-35s would enhance Tehran’s capacity for defending precious assets and projecting airpower outside its borders. It also shows mounting military-technical ties between two sanction-hardened nations. In July, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the Iranian–Russian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, ratified this month, regarding defense, energy, and economic cooperation. Iran recently took delivery of a batch of Russian MiG-29s, augmenting its air power.
To Moscow, the transaction is worth more than just revenues it’s a solid export success in a market where its share has plummeted through the floor. Russian weapons sales fell 92 percent between 2021 and 2024, to a dozen active customers, according to the Jamestown Foundation. Russian producers have been forced by the war in Ukraine to focus on producing locally, substituting thousands of lost artillery systems, armored combatants, and tanks. As Pavel Luzin calculated, exports fell from $14.6 billion in 2021 to less than $1 billion in 2024. Securing colossal deals with Iran and Algeria one leaked item includes 12 Su-57E stealth fighters and Su-34 support kits for Algiers is helping keep production lines open and retain engineering expertise in the teeth of sanctions.
Having the Su-35 in Iran’s inventory would also complicate operational planning for the United States and Israel. Its radar detection, missile capability, and EW defense can challenge regional air superiority that currently exists, and its resale will compel adversaries to evolve tactic and invest in countermeasures. Though no confirmation has come from Moscow or Tehran, technical and strategic implications are already being weighed by defense analysts. If confirmed, the sale would not just transform Iran’s air capabilities but also prove that Russia is intent on using high-tech military exports as a geopolitical instrument despite weakening globally.
