“Once these systems are fully in place, our enemies will understand the language of power,” said Abolfazl Zohrevand, a prominent member of Iran’s parliament, as Russian MiG-29 fighter planes landed in Shiraz. The arrival represents a rare and instant boost to Iran’s struggling air force, which has been revealed as perilously antiquated in recent confrontations against Israel.
The MiG-29 Fulcrum, which is a Soviet fourth-generation multirole fighter design, provides Iran with a short-term air defense and intercept capability. Designed for speed and maneuverability, the MiG-29 has a Mach 2.25 speed, a 330 meter-per-second rate of climb, and a Phazotron N019 radar to track ten targets and shoot down two at the same time. However, the models that Iran has previously flown purchased in 1990 are early fundamental variants without avionics, enlarged fuel tanks, and sophisticated weapons integration of upgraded versions such as the MiG-29SMT. The new jets delivered, whose configuration is not specified, are meant to be a stopgap until the far more capable Sukhoi Su-35 arrives.
The Su-35 Flanker-M is a quantum leap. It was unveiled in 2014 and is a 4.5-generation combat aircraft with Saturn AL-41F1S thrust-vectoring engines, a top speed of Mach 2.25, and an over 3,600-kilometer range without refueling. Its Irbis-E passive electronically scanned array radar has the ability to see targets up to 400 kilometers, away, track 30 simultaneously, and target eight at a time. The Su-35’s supermaneuverability, sophisticated electronic warfare kit, and ability to use long-range R-77-1 and R-37M air-to-air missiles would give Iran an effective deterrent capability against regional foes flying advanced fighters like Israel’s F-35I Adir or Turkey’s new Block 70 F-16s.
But Iran’s modernization path is entangled. Satellite photographs have revealed some Su-35s initially intended for Egypt re-directed to Algeria, casting doubt on delivery schedules to Tehran. Even if a dozen or so do make it, they would be joining an air force that is still dominated by half-century-old F-14A Tomcats, third-generation F-4 Phantom IIs, and F-5 Tigers airframes with their best-before dates long expired.
The urgency of this modernization effort comes from Iran’s recent 12-day war with Israel, in which Iranian air defenses did not prevent deep penetrating strikes. Israeli F-16s that had precision-guided munitions entered within 50 miles of the capital city Tehran, and the IRIAF was only able to scramble a single MiG-29 to cover the capital. The strikes destroyed Iran’s last Russian-provided S-300 systems that were purchased in 2016, creating gaping holes in its defensive network.
To counter these weaknesses, Tehran is also purchasing China’s HQ-9 and Russia’s S-400 air defense missile systems. The HQ-9, partially patterned after the Russian S-300, has an envelope out to 200 kilometers and can target aircraft, cruise missiles, and some ballistic missiles. The S-400 Triumf pushes that envelope out to 400 kilometers with its 40N6 missile, fitted with sophisticated target acquisition radars that can pursue stealth aircraft and hypersonic threats. These systems, placed in “significant numbers” by Zohrevand, may be used to restore layered air defense capabilities lost in recent Israeli activity.
Iran’s homegrown systems like the Bavar-373, Khordad, Sayyad, Arman, and S-200 Ghareh offer more coverage but lack the combat experience and sensor fusion capabilities of the HQ-9 and S-400. Incorporating these foreign-plated platforms with local defenses will necessitate upgrades to Iran’s command-and-control networks, secure data links, and radar networks to enable seamless coordination of engagements.
The technical challenge even reaches into pilot training and upkeep. Flying the Su-35’s advanced avionics and weapons platforms requires intensive training, while keeping thrust-vectoring engines and advanced radar arrays running requires high-class facilities and a constant stream of parts logistics that have long been strained under sanctions. Without ongoing Russian support, long-term readiness of these aircraft would be put at risk.
For Tehran, the MiG-29 delivery is symbolic and strategic. It is a sign of a prompt, though limited, reaction to laid bare vulnerabilities, but the imminence of Su-35s and sophisticated air defense systems suggests more far-reaching intentions to narrow capability gaps. In regional military arithmetic, these purchases can complicate Israeli tactical planning and oblige U.S. and Gulf Arab strategists to factor in a more proficient Iranian air and missile defense network. But the extent of change will be not only a function of hardware, but Iran’s capacity to integrate, maintain, and successfully utilize such systems in a neighborhood where air power superiority is challenged by nations that possess fifth-generation fighters and networked defense systems.
