With its sleek fuselage and role as an unrivaled air superiority fighter, the F-22 Raptor’s 2011 production termination marked a radical shift in U.S. military aerial operations. The result of the Cold War’s Advanced Tactical Fighter (ATF) program, the F-22 was designed to counter the Soviet Union’s air threat. By the time the aircraft first flew in 1997 and officially entered service in 2005, the international geopolitical landscape had altered. No longer facing an enemy superpower, America was engaged in counterinsurgency campaigns in which the cutting-edge capacity of the F-22 was underutilized.
The initial plan for the Raptor was grand, with 750 planes to replace the vintage F-15 and F-16 fighter squadrons. This was reduced drastically to just 186 jets, the size of fleet that fell short of fully replacing the F-15s and reshaping air combat as originally contemplated. The production in the short run, along with very high operating costs-about $33,538 per hour of flight in 2018-made the situation challenging for the F-22’s sustainability. A closer examination of the figures indicates that the expense of the program was an astronomical $67.3 billion, or approximately $82.25 billion in 2022 dollars, and thus a tremendous financial burden on both Lockheed Martin and the U.S. Air Force.
Added to the expense was the fact that the plane was non-modular. In 2022, the Air Force invested over $11 billion in the upgrades to the F-22 fleet in a bid to extend its service life through new fuel tanks, new weapons, and electronic warfare capabilities. But the avionics, a critical component of modern warfare, remained on old technology. These systems were a near impossibility to upgrade since the aircraft design had never accommodated such profound overhauls.
Writing on the wall became evident when the USAF officially declared the planned retirement of the F-22 by 2030. The choice was multifaceted its expensive operation, obsolescence, and advent of more cost-effective and technologically superior jets such as the F-35 Lightning II all played a role in it. The F-35, for much the same capability at a lesser cost, and its multi-role capability, had begun to usurp the spotlight of the F-22. It was not an economic issue; the F-35 was a new generation of war, one that was rapidly changing in directions the F-22 was no longer able to keep pace with.
As the fifth-generation fighter matures in age, strategic attention now shifts to the sixth generation by way of the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) project. The F-22, while a pioneering plane upon its initial construction, increasingly finds itself behind in the modern era where air defense systems themselves are rapidly advancing and near-peer adversaries like China are increasing military capabilities.
To place the Raptor’s role in contemporary combat airpower into context, it is helpful to look at how it stands in relation to global contemporaries. By the time the production line shut down, around 195 F-22s had been produced. For comparison, China’s J-20 Mighty Dragon equivalent fifth-generation fighter had only some 50 examples proven operational. Russia’s Sukhoi SU-57, also known as the “Felon,” boasted a mere 16. These numbers would indicate that while the U.S. was overestimating how much it was going to need the Raptor in the first place, it has by no means fallen behind the pursuit of air superiority.
The NGAD is not just meant to offer enhanced stealth, even against low-frequency arrays, but a new method of air fighting with the inclusion of drone wingmen that expand sensor reach and combat planning. While all remains classified, the focus of the NGAD on technology over traditional dogfight maneuvers is a testament to the changing nature of conflict.
