Following a war in which Israeli F-35s, F-15s, and F-16s flew with impunity in Iranian airspace, Tehran has acted to fill gaping holes in its air defenses with a temporary boost of Russian MiG-29 fighter aircraft. Abolfazl Zohrevand, a parliament member belonging to Iran’s National Security Committee, has termed the entry of the plane into Shiraz a “short-term solution” as the nation prepares for the arrival of more sophisticated Sukhoi Su-35s, as well as China’s HQ-9 and Russia’s S-400 air defense systems. “Once these systems are fully in place, our enemies will understand the language of power,” he said in local media.
The MiG-29 Fulcrum, debuted in the 1980s, is still an effective multirole aircraft in some environments. The two-engine fighter features a Phazotron N019 radar, which can detect targets at a range of 70 kilometers, and can carry combinations of R-27 and R-73 air-to-air missiles. Though scarcely high-tech relative to fifth-generation aircraft, the agility of the MiG-29 and its fairly recent avionics provide an immediate, though modest, upgrade for Iran over its aged inventory of pre-1979 American-built aircraft like the F-4 Phantom II and F-14A Tomcat.
Iran’s overreliance on these outdated platforms was brutally revealed in the recent 12-day war with Israel. Israeli attacks destroyed about 120 Iranian air defense launchers about one-third of its pre-war stock and knocked out its remaining functional Russian-provided S-300 systems. Iran’s scattered air defense network, with systems not having meaningful data integration, enabled Israeli aircraft to attack nuclear sites at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan without meaningful opposition. U.S. B-2 bombers, conducting “Operation Midnight Hammer,” pierced Iranian air space to drop 30,000-pound bunker busters, highlighting the susceptibility of Tehran’s strategic assets.
Against this context, Su-35 Flanker-E dominates Iranian modernization schemes. The Su-35’s Irbis-E passive electronically scanned array radar has target detection capabilities of up to 350 kilometers, while the thrust-vectoring AL-41F1S engines of the Su-35 provide unparalleled maneuverability. The plane’s suite of electronic warfare capabilities and a payload capacity of over 8,000 kilograms would be a quantum gain for the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF). Yet, according to reports Iran ordered and paid for 50 Su-35s by 2021, no confirmed delivery has been reported. Some of the aircraft originally intended for Tehran have instead been used in Algerian service, satellite imagery has confirmed.
The Iranian modernization effort includes the HQ-9 and S-400 air defense systems. China’s HQ-9 provides engagement ranges up to 200 kilometers and has been designed to neutralize aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Russia’s S-400 Triumf increases that range to 400 kilometers and features enhanced target tracking and simultaneous targeting of multiple threats. Both systems, if purchased in meaningful quantities, would assist Iran in achieving a layered defense that could threaten regional rivals’ air operations. But doubters surround them. “At best, it could be a desire or request communicated to the Russians by the extremely worried Iranians, but chances of it, or a HQ-9B delivery by China, happening in the foreseeable future is close to zero,” Farzin Nadimi, a defense expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, stated.
Iran’s native systems, including the Bavar-373, Khordad-15, and Sayyad series, were all presented as domestic alternatives, yet their inability to intercept stealth platforms and advanced stand-off munitions was clear in the war. The incorporation of imported systems like the S-400 would necessitate massive improvements to Iran’s command-and-control infrastructure in order to realize the networked, layered defense that contemporary doctrine requires.
Apart from the technical, the delivery of MiG-29 has a political intent. Zohrevand presented the purchases as a “victory card” within the background of impending UN sanctions snapback and current nuclear negotiations. Through the display of connections with Moscow and Beijing, Tehran sends to both internal constituencies and external powers the message that it still has channels for military development despite Western pressure.
Whether these steps will be converted into actual strategic resilience is questionable. The MiG-29s provide a short-term operational edge, but without the Su-35s and advanced air defense systems, Iran’s capacity to challenge its airspace against superior-technology opponents will continue to be limited. The war’s lessons most notably the decisive character of combined, cutting-edge air power will inform Tehran’s procurement agenda, but delivery schedules, training needs, and geopolitics could yet dampen the effectiveness of its modernization campaign.
