“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin” With those words, President Trump, in a series of sharply worded social media missives on June 17, 2025, pushed the world into a new era of brinksmanship between Washington and Tehran, even as Israeli warplanes pounded Iranian military and nuclear facilities in an unprecedented campaign.
Iran’s missile forces, though battered, are yet far from broken, now poised to strike back at US bases throughout the Middle East. As quoted by the New York Times, US and Iranian officials say that Tehran has readied a range of ballistic missiles and military resources, and the initial salvos will be directed against American positions in Iraq if the US joins Israel’s war effort. US military leaders reacted by putting more than 40,000 troops based in the region from the United Arab Emirates to Jordan and Saudi Arabia on high alert, and as the Pentagon mobilized extra fighter aircraft, refueling tankers, and naval forces into the region, including the USS Nimitz carrier strike group and several Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.
This swift surge follows a series of Israeli airstrikes that, as of June 17, had obliterated “about half” of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers, more than 200 in all, plus important storage facilities and energy installations. The Israel Defence Forces posted videos of precision strikes against missile depots in Tehran, East Azerbaijan, and Esfahan provinces, plus the Tehrani Moghaddam Missile Base, one of Iran’s most critical military installations. Israeli air power has also destroyed over 70 Iranian air defence sites since June 12, allowing for deeper penetrations into Iranian airspace and attaining air supremacy over Tehran and western Iran.
However, Iran’s ability to retaliate is still potent. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence estimated in March that Iran has “the largest stockpiles” of drones and ballistic missiles in the region, with no less than 14 missile variants in operation ranging from short-range Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar to medium-range Shahab-3 and Ghadr. These systems, a combination of solid- and liquid-fueled designs, have been tested and shipped to Iranian proxies from Lebanon to Yemen. In recent barrages, Iran has fired between 20 and 40 missiles at once at Israel, although the intensity has decreased as Israeli attacks depleted its stockpile.
Iran’s missile program is also technologically advanced, resulting from decades of foreign cooperation and research. The Shahab-3, for example, is derived from the North Korean No Dong-1 and has a range of 2,000 kilometres. The Ghadr and Emad versions provide greater precision and range, and Iran’s space launch vehicle program is being watched carefully for its potential dual-use as an intercontinental ballistic missile platform in the event Tehran decides to develop such capabilities.
As the threat of missiles increases, the US has strengthened its regional missile defence position. The Pentagon keeps Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) batteries in Israel, recently augmented by a second unit as well as Patriot batteries and Aegis-capable destroyers in the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf. When it happened during the April and October 2024 Iranian missile barrages, these systems were the key to neutralising incoming threats, and their recent deployments indicate preparing for “intensive combat operations” in the coming days, with at least 17 US refuelling tankers taking position.
The threat of nuclear escalation hangs over the war. Israeli attacks are said to have disabled thousands of centrifuges at the Natanz enrichment plant and knocked out electrical substations vital to Iran’s nuclear program, and to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has verified direct damage to underground facilities. Though the Fordow enrichment facility,y built deep underground inside a mountain south of Qom, is still largely intact, experts warn that only the US has the bunker-busting GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator that can safely destroy such hardened targets if a move to escalate further is made.
Iran’s nuclear program, a long-simmering hot spot in regional security, stands at a crossroads. The IAEA recently discovered Iran in violation of its obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, reporting a stockpile of more than 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium sufficient, if enriched a further percentage point, to produce several nuclear weapons. The “breakout time” for the production of weapons-grade material is now estimated at only one week by both US and global estimates. Tehran, meanwhile, maintains its program is purely civilian, but has warned it will enrich further and even pull out of the NPT in retaliation for continued attacks.
Diplomatic attempts are unravelling. Negotiations between the US and Iran were halted following the initial Israeli attacks, and although President Trump has expressed willingness to resume negotiations, his call for “unconditional surrender” was met with defiance from Ayatollah Khamenei, who said, “The Iranian nation stands firm against an imposed war, just as it will stand firm against an imposed peace, and this nation will not surrender to anyone in the face of imposition” in a televised statement.
Regional engulfment is risked by the Iranian-backed militia and proxy involvement. Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba have issued coordinated intentions to strike at US forces if Washington intervenes militarily, and the Houthis in Yemen have promised Iran solidarity by reopening missile and drone attacks on US and Israeli targets as well as mining the Strait of Hormuz.
As air raid sirens continue to sound from Tel Aviv to Tehran, and as US and Israeli military planners weigh their next moves, the technical and strategic complexities of missile warfare, nuclear deterrence, and regional alliances are shaping a conflict with consequences far beyond the Middle East. The days ahead will put to the test not just the resilience of missile defence systems and the strength of underground bunkers, but also the constraints of diplomacy and the determination of leaders across the board.
