“At this time, we can say that we have achieved full aerial superiority over Tehran’s skies,” said Brigadier General Effie Defrin, the Israel Defense Forces’ spokesman, on June 16, 2025. Within the course of a week, Israel’s armed forces have carried out a campaign whose technical sophistication and operational audacity have rewritten the contemporary playbook for preemptive war with a peer enemy.
The quick elimination of 120 Iranian defense systems nearly a third of Tehran’s pre-war count was no accident of luck, but the culmination of years of incremental innovation, intelligence integration, and lessons-learned on operations from Gaza and Lebanon. Hilla Hadad-Chmelnik, a former CEO of Israel’s Ministry of Innovation, called the campaign years of work in intelligence, in weapons development, in defensive and offensive operations. The methods we tested against Hezbollah striking command chains quickly and precisely were studied, refined, and applied here.
The operation, which was codenamed “Rising Lion,” commenced with a textbook SEAD/DEAD suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses. Israeli F-35I Adir stealth aircraft, abetted by F-15Is and F-16Is, methodically hit Iranian radar, command nodes, and surface-to-air missile batteries. The strategy, the Lebanon playbook revival, was based on a mix of electronic warfare, precision-guided munitions, and most significantly secretly pre-positioned drones and weapons within Iran. Mossad operatives, in a multi-year covert campaign, smuggled small weaponized drones and precision munitions into Iranian space, positioning them close to sensitive air defense locations. These assets came online at the beginning of the conflict, debilitating Iranian defenses and clearing the way for manned bombing raids deep inside the nation.
AI played a crucial role in target selection. Israeli analysts utilized AI models to sort through troves of intelligence, quickly identifying high-value targets military leaders, nuclear scientists, missile launchers, and infrastructure while avoiding collateral damage. This fusion of intelligence-SOF (special operations forces) facilitated a chain of decapitation strikes, killing 21 of 22 top Iranian military officials and 10 of 12 nuclear scientists within the first 24 hours alone.
Israel’s unmanned aerial vehicles, which were previously limited to overflight in Lebanon, now fly over Tehran, thousands of kilometers from home, facilitating real-time targeting and post-strike analysis. The breaking of regional radar networks in Lebanon and Syria, the disabling of Turkish air-defense cooperation, left Iran open to repeated Israeli air penetrations. U.S. Central Command, though technically not engaged, has provided key intelligence and warning, and U.S. naval resources are now deployed to augment Israel’s missile defense array.
On the defensive side, Israel’s layered anti-missile umbrella Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow 2/3, and THAAD supplied by the United States has been tried as never before. Despite facing barrages of over 400 Iranian missiles and hundreds of drones, interception rates have remained above 90% for Iron Dome and David’s Sling, even as hypersonic and cruise missiles occasionally breached the shield. The Iron Dome, operating against short-range threats, employs radar-guided Tamir interceptors now priced as low as $40,000 per interceptor to defend cities. David’s Sling guards against medium- to long-range threats, while Arrow 3, with up to 3,000 kilometers range, is responsible for intercepting ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere. But as analysts warn, “no system shoots down 100 percent [missiles] anyway,” and Iranian missiles such as hypersonic glide vehicles and cruise missiles able to evade radar have hit sensitive targets like the Soroka Medical Center.
The economic and logistical weight of continuous missile defense is staggering. Arrow 3 interceptors cost an estimated $2–3.5 million per unit, and the total figure since October 2023 has easily surpassed $1 billion. Israel’s policy now permits some missiles to land safely in empty ground to save interceptors for real threats.
The offensive advantage of the campaign is no less remarkable. Israel’s air force, which blends F-35Is, F-15Is, and F-16Is, has shown to exhibit a “high-low mix” strategy blending stealth, electronic warfare, and precision-guided munitions with legacy aircraft and drone swarms. The F-35I, especially, has been shown to have geolocated and jammed Iranian SAMs, while F-15Is and F-16Is employ standoff weapons like the Rampage air-launched ballistic missile and GBU-39 small diameter bombs. Israeli tankers some close to 60 years old support continuous sorties across hostile ground, evidencing the value of logistics and in-flight refueling.
Still, for all its success, Israel has one technical and strategic test: the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant. Under 80–90 meters of rock close to Qom, Fordow is out of range of Israel’s GBU-28 and BLU-109 bunker-busters. Only the U.S. GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, carried by B-2 bombers, is thought powerful enough to blow up the facility. Several accurately sequenced hits would be needed to bring down the underground vaults a feat not previously tried in war. The Pentagon has operationally slipped refueling planes and ships into place, but President Trump’s math is unknown, with regional war and the threat of escalation hanging over it.
Other experts counter that Israeli sabotage power cutting, cyberattacks, or commando raids represents a less risky alternative, considering Israel’s experience of clandestine action against Iran’s nuclear facilities. But as the Center for Strategic and International Studies points out, “most options for destroying Fordow entail a tradeoff between nonproliferation benefits and escalation risks”.
As Operation Rising Lion rages on, the lessons for defense planners are deep. Israel’s integration of intelligence, special forces, and cutting-edge technology tried in Gaza and Lebanon, honed to perfection over Iran has created a new paradigm for combined, multi-domain operations. The campaign’s result, and the status of Fordow, will be studied for years to come as a case study in the science and art of strategic surprise, missile defense, and the reach of military power in the nuclear era.
