But for ordinary Iranians, the past few weeks have seen a conjunction of pressures that extends well beyond the streets where protests have flared. Years of economic mismanagement, compounded by sanctions and a shrinking oil sector, have entrenched inflation above 30 percent and stretched household budgets to breaking point. The World Bank now projects that Iran’s economy will shrink for a second year in a row, with another 1.5 percent contraction in 2026/27-driven by falling oil production and tightened international restrictions.
The protests had faced a severe crackdown since prices of living started spiraling upwards. Rights groups and the diaspora networks believed the number of dead might be much higher than the few thousand acknowledged so far by officials, with estimates running into the tens of thousands. Verification is difficult to do in a near-total internet blackout-a tactic that has become standard feature of the state’s crisis response. Connectivity that once was disrupted piecemeal can now be curtailed almost in an instant, cutting off not only social media but also basic phone services.
This has left families, journalists and humanitarian groups struggling to confirm events or locate the missing. Both rumors and facts have spread unimpeded in the information vacuum. Fact-checkers identified AI-generated videos and recycled footage from unrelated events passed off as evidence of demonstrations going on now. Anti-government protest imagery is hard to verify in these circumstances, but pro-government rallies air openly on state media, with authorities offering logistical assistance in many cases. Analysts say those are real, highly controlled events-a counter-narrative to the unrest.
The crisis is already reshaping Iran’s limited economic ties internationally. The United States announced a planned 25% tariff on any country trading with Iran, representing the attempt to cut revenues coming from its main exports. China-which buys over 80% of Iran’s oilcondemned the measure and vowed “retaliatory steps”. Other key partners like Turkiye, India, and Pakistan also face similar threats of tariffs, adding to wider disputes over trade.
Sanctions had already cut Iran’s oil exports from over two million barrels a day in 2011 down to well below half of that number in recent years, robbing the government of tens of billions in revenue annually. The strain in diplomacy reflects the isolation. Rhetoric out of Washington veers between a hint of direct intervention and suggestions of diplomatic channels, but recent statements have set aside talks until the killing of protesters stops.
European leaders sharpened their words, too, with some saying the government’s reliance on force marks the twilight of its legitimacy. Yet three major waves of unrest in less than a decade have been contained-so far-by the state’s security apparatus, even as its grip seems to weaken incrementally. To many inside, survival is the immediate concern-getting through shortages, power cuts, and uncertainty about news from beyond their neighborhoods.
The challenge for those outside lies in piecing any coherent picture from fragments, knowing how much of what goes on goes unseen. Economic contraction, combined with strategic trade restrictions and intentional muzzling of information, is making the country more isolated today than it has been at any time in recent memory. There is little prospect that either of these internal or external pressures will ease anytime soon.
