On 27 December 2023, an interesting event in the history of military aviation took place when Russia announced the handover of the last batch of Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jets for the year, completing its state defense order. With rising tensions and the conflict in Ukraine still ongoing, the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) announcement comes against the background of a boost in Su-57 production capacity as evidence of Moscow’s resolve to step up its advanced fighter jet capabilities.
Sergey Chemezov, the head of Rostec, summed it up with his words, “The number of fifth-generation fighters entering the military almost doubles every year,” which shows a strong expectation for the Su-57 production in 2024. As the Russian war machine keeps rolling, the significance of these events becomes apparent. Though Russia is working to double production on the Su-57 and has delivered 22 planes so far, with another 15 to be delivered in 2024, the effectiveness of the Su-57 and its stealth capabilities are still topics of debate.
Though the number is up, the actual use of the Su-57 in Ukraine is still minimal. The fighters, as per the Russian Ministry of Defense, are mainly employed for operational trials, tactics development, and training purposes, with the Russian Air Force likely to induct its first combat regiment of the aircraft. The Su-57, with its claimed front-aspect stealth feature, is seen as being able to approach closer to the front line of combat without being detected by air defense radars than the other Russian fighters. It’s assumed that the Su-57 can evade US Patriot air defense systems’ powerful AN/MPQ-65 search radar, a development that would tip the balance in air combat.
Su-57’s effectiveness in operations under dark mode and weapons carried by the aircraft, such as stealth and hypersonic missiles such as the Kh-69 and Gremlin, strengthen its standoff capabilities. These new armaments have been crafted to penetrate and destroy targets with little interception risk, and they could transform the domain of operations. In spite of these benefits, proof of Su-57’s combat power is unclear.
Controversially, the first reported combat service of the aircraft was over Syria in 2018, and afterwards, in May 2022, Russia asserted that the Su-57 had been employed against Ukraine. However, no tangible data on the Su-57’s performance in these theaters have been introduced, which questions its true combat provenness.
Furthermore, Ukrainian air defense crews report important successes in the air, reportedly shooting down multiple Russian aircraft, though these do not count the Su-57. The fact that Russian aircraft are being shot down indicates a difficult operating environment, perhaps raising doubts over the effectiveness of the Su-57 against highly equipped foes.
With heavy losses and the expected roll-in of Western F-16 fighter aircraft to support Ukraine, pressure is building on Russia’s air force. Engineer Michael Bohnert of the RAND Corporation points out the cost of a drawn-out conflict to the longevity of military assets, saying, “Overuse of these aircraft is also costing Russia as the war drags on.”
