“The Arctic is warming at two to three times the rate of the rest of the planet,” reads the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This rapid warming has led to Arctic sea ice loss at alarming levels, which is crucial for maintaining the Earth’s energy balance. The loss of sea ice’s albedo effect is already responsible for approximately 25% of global warming, a report by Jennifer Francis of the Woodwell Climate Research Centre highlighted. Real Ice, a UK company, is attempting to tackle the crisis with a drastic measure: employing underwater drones to thicken the ice.
The concept of using underwater drones to re-freeze the Arctic is not a fantasy. The unmanned vehicles, powered by green hydrogen, will drill into the ice from below and pump seawater onto the top, creating a thicker layer of ice. The concept is founded on the principle that ice acts as a mirror, reflecting between 90% of the sun’s radiation back into space. However, ocean water reflects 90% of the sun’s rays, and this accelerates the warming process. In thickening ice, Real Ice aims to preserve this natural reflective barrier.
The pursuit is not without its disadvantages, however. Real Ice estimates that the maintenance of this project would cost an eye-watering $10 billion annually. Critics claim that this project would siphon funds away from more cost-effective climate change mitigation strategies, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, the viability and potential side effects of an extensive geoengineering project are highly contentious.
The key to scaling this project up is “bringing the engineering underwater,” as Cían Sherwin, co-founder of Real Ice, would say. Scientists at the Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies in Pisa, Italy, are building an underwater robot that will drill vertically through ice from below with a hot pipe and start pumping water up through it. The idea is to thicken 100 square kilometers of winter 2027–2028 sea ice to prove the method to investors and governments. The method borders on the marvelous, involving a fleet of 50 drones that melt holes in mere minutes and force water in as their infrared cameras track the work.
Other than skepticism, the reward of slowing the loss of Arctic ice is significant. Keeping a million square kilometers of sea ice around for an additional month of summer could chill Earth up to as much as removing 930 million metric tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere over 20 years, estimates Real Ice. For such effects, $10 billion truly isn’t costly, says Andrea Ceccolini, co-CEO of Real Ice, and the cooling would be immediate.
Still, the idea of deploying half a million drones each with an estimated price tag of $5,000 presents a massive challenge. “We’ve done much bigger things in humanity, much more complex than this,” says Ceccolini with confidence. Even so, the harsh realities of working in one of the planet’s most unforgiving environments, along with the pressing need for breakthroughs in battery technology, make the task anything but simple.
The impacts on the environment of such a program are also of concern. The addition of noise and disturbance from the drones could possibly have a significant impact upon the behavior of marine mammals, especially whales. In addition, the threat of extra salinity on the ice surface, due to the forcing out of salt on freezing, could improve melting over summer months. All these are things that need to be dealt with prior to deciding if this technology is feasible.
The row around geoengineering solutions like Real Ice’s is indicative of the overall dilemma climate scientists and policymakers find themselves in today. Decarbonization as much as it matters, is happening too slowly, and there is not enough political will. Technologies like those Real Ice is developing might provide some additional time. As University of Ottawa climate system analyst Paul Beckwith suggests, a three-pronged strategy involving the phasing out of fossil fuels, carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere, and protection of the Arctic could become the norm.
The question is: Can we afford not to try out these ambitious interventions, given how fast climate change is gaining pace? The stakes are high, and the solutions not easy. As Real Ice ventures forward with field trials and research, the world waits with bated breath for a breakthrough that could help preserve the Arctic’s critical ice cover, and in doing so, planet-wide climate stability.
